Saturday, August 12, 2006

A Yellow Light

Israel would best serve its interests by scrupulously observing the cease fire, that it will agree to start at 7 AM, Monday. Even if IDF has not completed the thrust to the Litani River, it should nevertheless stop. It should also not broadly interpret "defensive actions" to mean attacks on Hezbollah that will be behind its front lines, i.e, "cleaning them out." Since the cease fire provisions on the whole are favorable to Israel, it benefits if the cease fire holds and confounds the widespread scepticism about that. Second, when the cease fire resolution is viewed in context with the Security Council's recent demand that Iran stop uranium enrichment, it is clearly another step to contain Iran. Since curbing Iran and its nuclear program are paramount Israeli goals, Israel be would unwise to split the unity of the Security Council. The pattern of violations, which Israel's General Staff contemplates, would force the US to defend these actions in response to charges by its fellow members on the Council and the Sectary General. That split would impede the Council from acting decisively with regard to Iran, should the need arise, as anticipated, on August 22. Third, a well-policed and observed cease fire can over time split Hezbollah off from Iran. During the war, Hezbollah has presented itself to other Lebanese as a national resistance fighter and tried to live down its image as irresponsible provocateur. It has verbally committed itself to acting as part of the Lebanon state. A stable Lebanese government might force it to live up to these commitments. Israel can support the stability by observing the cease fire conditions and permitting speedy resettlement of the 500,000 people who fled southern Lebanon.


Post a Comment

<< Home